Goeff - I agree with your most of your post so there's no
argument brewing here<gg> I think Jim Kelly or Paul Levy
can answer some of the questions better than I because I'm
no manufacturing expert, but just to respond to a couple of your questions:
"why does anyone today buy from CompUSA when they can purchase an
equivalent or better computer directly from Dell for less money?
You answered that question with:
"A possible answer is that he is a novice and needs hand-holding.
For the same reasons I believe the CompUSA's will probably exist, even in an all- Dell- lookalike world."
Add to that, retail's ability to offer touch and feel with instant
gratification, plunk down your money, walk out w/ PC. I hate
mail order and rarely buy thru it. No, direct will not destroy
indirect, but I've not seen a good strategy as to how 1 company
can succesfully sell into both. Furthermore, many folks
severely underestimate the growth potential in the markets and
channel Dell serves. Look at the IDC numbers regarding PC
sales by platform, by segment, by region, by channel and by
processor, look at the trends and then look at Dell's share
to get an idea of the opportunity I'm talking about.
As for the describing the landscape in 5yrs, that would take
more time than I'm willing to commit to this thread<g> as I'd
have to get blood-n-guts detail. Being a system designer,
I know exactly the kinds of systems I'll be designing and
everyone will be using in 5yrs and I can assure you, just about
everything being used today in the business world will need to be replaced.
Will PB or CPQ succesfully transition to BTO? I don't know.
But I will predict that in 5yrs(2002), Compaq will still be the #1
PC supplier worldwide with ~$70Billion in annual revenues.
Dell will be #2 WW with ~54Billion. HWP #3, IBM #4, Apple #130
Gateway will have been bought out.
MEATHEAD |
