The semi soft spot is real and it includes analog. PC's and LCD TVs have been weak but I thought analog might be OK. It's not exactly a bellwether but the microcap analog test equipment stock I have ATRM just warned on Q4. I spoke with them and besides company specific things like a big evaluation of new equipment that will slip into Q1, they do see people holding back on buying new equipment from them. They do business with many if not most of the analog chip makers. It seems everyone is worried about this pause there seems to be in the cycle and not sure how big a deal it may be.
While they're a tiny microcap the reason I own them was that they are the only equipment company that is particularly levered to analog.
I suspect the fear of the pause and associated questions about end demand is helping to make it somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy for many semi and semi-equipment now until the end-demand visibility is clearly there again. Is this already priced into many semi stocks? I don't know, I guess that's the question regarding each company.
In the analog space there's also this this thing going on where people are trying to figure out who will be the losers when TXN starts putting out big volumes of analog chips from their new 300mm RFAB in Richardson TX.
In terms of LCD TV which affects LED we have this new negative info from Savitz:
LCD TV Sales Still Sliding
Posted by Eric Savitz
Demand for LCD televisions in the U.S. continues to disappoint.
In October, overall U.S. retail electronics revenue fell 5.8% from a year ago, according to the research firm NPD Group, with sales of 2D LCD televisions down 24.7% in dollars, and 2D plasma TVs down 22%. Even including 3D models, LCD TV sales for the month were down 15.4% from a year ago.
In units, LCD sales were down 7% from a year ago, while plasma units were actually up 11%. As Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White points out in a research note, this was the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year LCD TV unit sales declines. White contends that the continued disappointing data reflects “weak consumer spending, high penetration rates and the hangover effect of strength seen in 2009.”
White also notes that earlier this week LCD panel makers reported that October sales were down 13% sequentially, versus a historical average drop for the month of 4%. |
