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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Todd Daniels who wrote (5759)11/11/1997 3:45:00 PM
From: steve lipson  Read Replies (1) of 13594
 
I can't really disagree with anything you say. Deal flow is always hard to predict so I'm not going to panic because they didn't have something akin to the quality of a CUC to announce at the annual meeting. Clearly, though, some much better quality deals are priced into the stock. If too much more time passes without seeing one, or they trot out some even doggier deals suggesting that they've already reached the bottom of the barrel, then I could be in some trouble on this stock. My faith here is really placed as much or more on the Internet as a productive medium, than AOL per se, so it's not quite as bad a bet as your average bear would think at first blush.

On another line of thinking about AOL, I get glassy-eyed and confused when looking at tax loss carryforwards, something AOL has an abundance of. They took a provision for taxes against first quarter earnings, although they shouldn't owe anything. Will that come back at the end of the fiscal year (to cries of smoke and mirrors, no doubt) or disappear into reserves to come out in ways we'll only suspect. Overall, it appears they could generate $2+ per share in earnings from utilization of $790 million in tax loss carryforwards (assuming other earnings, of course). What's your take on that?
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