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Non-Tech : Alternative energy

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9356)11/19/2010 1:43:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (2) of 16955
 
YGE 3FQ10 results:
ir.yinglisolar.com

33% gross margin (compared to FSLR's 40%, TSL's 32% and STP's 16% for latest reported quarter)
491M$ rev.
0.44$ EPS GAAP
13.8M$ interest expense
517M$ total cash, about 1B$ in debt
(unrestricted cash is unknown, since they don't separate restricted and unrestricted cash)
(short-term debt is the largest of the various categories of debt)
PE = 11.10/(0.44 X 4) = 6.3 (I am annualizing this quarter's earnings, an optimistic assumption))

"As of today, we have entered into sales contracts under which a total of 721 MW of PV modules are expected to be delivered in 2011, and this figure is expected to increase to 1,000 MW by the end of this year. "... ...increase our nameplate capacity to 1.7 GW in late 2011...

...Our PANDA cell conversion efficiency has achieved 18.5% on the commercial production lines and we expect to increase the figure to 20% towards 2012. Currently, we have achieved a new record cell efficiency of 19.5% on PANDA trial production lines...

...raises its PV module shipment target to the estimated range of 1,020 MW to 1,040 MW from the previous estimated range of 950 MW to 1,000 MW for fiscal year 2010, which represents an increase of 94.2% to 98.0% compared to fiscal year 2009. The net revenue for full year 2010 is estimated to be in the range of US$1,780 million to US$1,810 million... ...further raises its gross margin target to the estimated range of 32.0% to 32.5% from the recently raised estimated range of 31% to 32% for fiscal year 2010...

my comments:
I'm considering making 30% gross margins a requirement for a longterm solar holding.
In 2011, maintaining 100% capacity utilization will be crucial, and YGE's contract total is impressive.
Steady progress in increasing efficiency.
Red flags: debt, short-term debt, no statement of unrestricted cash. YGE's balance sheet is worse than TSL's, which in turn is much worse than FSLR's.

TSL reports Nov. 30
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