Similar to April, a lot of optimism, a lot of selling by insiders, and very little interest in hedging/puts. OCC retail EPC (<10 contracts) is 0.39, which is silly. Moreover, despite recent market decline, there has been very little movement in sentiment numbers. Folks are afraid to miss a rally.
Positive seasonality might trump everything, but my plan is to bet against December rally by shorting financials, at least for the next few weeks. Will be stopped out if faz drops to 10+.
A drop to 1130-1150 (SPX) would be a buying opp IMO.
Longer-term, same strategy as before. On weakness, add commodities, gold, and emerging markets (VWO and more risky stuff like Vietnam, Russia, Poland, Egypt); park cash in PG/JNJ-like "quality" stocks. |
