Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (6833)	11/11/1997 7:10:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) of 9285

I will stick my neck out and venture to say the fed will wait one more month before doing anything. Rationale: if they raise rates the dow will loose more than it did on grey monday (I see at least a decline of 600 points) and thus when you combine the market drop with the rate increase the net effect on the US [and world] economy would be so significant that under the scenario it would be reasonable to expect the deflation would become real. Yes! the Fed can afford to wait one more month to see what is really happening in Asia/South America. The world economy is in a transient state right know Greenspan is smart enough to remember what happened to him in 1987. The move is to risky! If he waited so long he can wait more. Actually. it can be argued he should have gone with bach to back increases when he first raised rates this year. This been said, I keep on shorting, particularly y2k stoks which I think will keep going down even if the fed lowers rates to -4% Pancho Disclaimer: The stuff above can be considered "Joe Batapaglia's style BS". I am not an economist! and Joe ain't either! (I am just making a joke. I must admit I like the guy. After all, despite the funny name I am Italian!) By the way you will find this post rather amusing: exchange2000.com Pancho

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