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Strategies & Market Trends : Speculating in Takeover Targets
ULBI 6.750-1.7%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Grantcw who wrote (2581)12/1/2010 1:19:12 AM
From: richardred  Read Replies (1) of 7243
 
cwillyg-Things will look more attractive if sales come in stronger than company or analysts estimates. Less attractive if sales disappoint. Based on KRYSTEXXA pricing. I myself haven't seen or looked into company or analysts sales estimates yet. IMO the initial launch will generate goods sales, as drug distributors stock product. IMO- It's the reorders that will be most important. That will take some time. At least a year to get some good comps. I have the latest 10K snip below. I still have to believe it's still part of the strategic plan if someone comes knocking. They wanted an end game from the beginning. I'm still speculating a suitor might still come forward with a direct offer to shareholders. This in guessing that the companies asking price was to high. I'm hypothetically hoping for something like a 20 dollar hostile bid. I haven't written any calls yet against my position.

The best part about this speculation is. If nothing happens. You have a good chance for long term stock price appreciation. Also if nothing happens. IMO The stock will trade on sales comps till more takeover speculation arises. The downside might be dilution/ lower stock price if the company needs more cash to expand. Also there could be a risk due to a raw material shortage of an ingredient by a contract manufacturer. Still a risk sales might disappoint and keep suitors away near term.

Snip 10K > Our strategic plan had been to seek a sale of our company following the approval of KRYSTEXXA by the FDA. This plan was based on our belief that a sale of our company would be the best way to realize the full global commercial potential of KRYSTEXXA and would be the optimal outcome for our shareholders and other stakeholders.

On October 25, 2010, we announced that our process to identify a strategic transaction for the sale of the Company had not resulted in a sale. Our Board of Directors expects to continue to evaluate strategic alternatives available to us to maximize value. We are now focusing our efforts on implementing our plans to commercially launch KRYSTEXXA, which we expect will be available by prescription in the United States in December of this year, and to file a Marketing Authorization Application, or MAA, for KRYSTEXXA in the European Union in January 2011.
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