TSL 3Q2010 results:
rev 508M$; 420M expected
EPS GAAP $1.08; 0.87 expected; 4 straight quarters of beating expectations
gross margin 31%
0.73$/W non-silicon manufacturing cost (applicable to its in-house wafer production to module production)
1.08$/W total manufacturing cost (= 0.73NS + 0.35 silicon cost)
777M$ cash unrestricted + eq.
669M$ debt (ST + LT + convertibles)
guidance for 4Q2010:
gross margin 30%
0.73$/W non-silicon man. cost (previous guidance had been 0.70$/W by end-2010)
"we’re expecting euro ASP during the fourth quarter to increase from the third quarter"
guidance for the full year 2010: total PV module shipments to be approximately 1 GW, compared to its earlier guidance of between 900 MW to 930 MW, representing an increase of approximately 151% from the annual PV module shipments in 2009.
2011 guidance:
total manufacturing costs will fall below $1.00 per Watt...
50$/kg average poly costs
we are already fully committed for Q1...2011 could well prove to be another year of tight supply...
"In the second half of 2011, the Company expects to raise its annualized in-house production capacity of ingot and wafer to 1.2GW; PV cell and module production capacity to reach 1.7 GW."
"We continue to see strong demand momentum into the fourth quarter and the outlook for 2011 is increasingly positive; we expect that demand for our products will outpace our planned capacity expansion in 2011."
16-20GW total global demand
phx.corporate-ir.net
media.corporate-ir.net
seekingalpha.com
my comments:
1. FSLR, YGE, and TSL are the only solars with 30% or better gross margins this quarter.
2. no 2011 guidance for sales, EPS...
3. they appear quite confident of staying at 100% cap. utilization in 2011, and still being able to maintain gross margins at about 30%
4. PE = 5 = 22.32/(1.08 X 4); using 4 times this quarter's earnings, or:
PE = 7 = 22.32/3.00; using trailing 12-month's earnings
5. 108M$ net cash (= 777-669M$) is worse that FSLR, better than YGE, and much better than STP, LDK, etc.
6. Trina is the best c-Si solar company, IMO. TSL out-performs on balance sheet, margins, low manufacturing costs, vertical integration, government support, low PE.
7. red flags: share bloat, lack of guidance, missed targets for manufacturing costs, possible 2011 oversupply |
