Arthur - Here is this week's Johnson Redbook Survey -
The Johnson Redbook (http://lp-llc.com/cents/redbook.shtml)
The Redbook Total-Store Average in the first week of retail November dipped
to 6.2% from 7.1% in the final week of October. The softer annual growth
rate in total-store sales and the fact that November's year-ago dollar base
Was significantly smaller than October's combined to produce a negative
month-to-month change (November versus October) of -1.8%. This was a
comparatively large swing, but not out of line with our retailer sample's
November target which, also predicting lower annual sales growth of 6.5%
(against October's 6.8%) on a smaller base, calls for the month to end some
1.5% below October.
Retailers reported mixed results for the first week, with some meeting
targets (albeit more modest ones, in most cases), while others described the
week as below-plan. Much of the weakness was concentrated in the department
stores, with both regional and national companies complaining of thinner
traffic and slower sales. Tough year-ago comparisons set higher breakevens
for certain stores, but results also reflected softer apparel sales,
explained by some sources as a predictable lull between the strong demand
for typical fall merchandise seen earlier in the season, and demand for
cold-weather and gift apparel expected to kick in during the second half of
November. Discount stores, by contrast, were sustained by other merchandise
categories like consumables and also seasonal hardlines, especially toys,
now featured with increasing frequency in lists of weekly sales leaders.
Irrespective of their performance in the first week, retailers are reserving
judgment until the days after Thanksgiving in the final week of November,
which are expected as always to set the tone for the season as a whole.
The Same-Store Average for the week was 3.6%, and the same-store
month-to-month change versus October was -1.6%.
John Lonski, Senior Economist, Moody's
lp-llc.com
Market Segment: Fixed Income
BTM/Schroders Weekly Chainstore Sales Snapshot
Mike Niemira, Economist
lp-llc.com
Market Segment: Private Releases
WASDE
lp-llc.com
Market Segment: Commoditiesno
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- Gary |
