David,
The market reaction sure appears to echo your thoughts. My issue is that there was never a reason to believe the burn market was going to be all that large to begin with, even if the market somehow expected that the sales of dermagraft-TC would have been higher. Also, as you mentioned, the market, even simply with bioengineered tissue products, continues to become more crowded every day for treatment of burns, especially for full-thickness severe burns. There is less competition with these types of products, although maybe less incentive to use given the pricing, for partial thickness burns. The market was expanded with the increased indication, but even if it really had good market penetration, the potential for TC is quite limited. The key is still dermagraft in the short to intermediate future in my opinion, although obviously today's reaction, as well as the recent support, seem to indicate that the market was expecting or hoping for more thus far from TC.
When referring to the increasing competition, were you referring to products other than TC, also? Of course, there is increasing competition for all medical products on almost a daily basis, but it still looks to me like there is far less of a concern for competition with dermagraft tx of diabetic foot ulcers at the moment than there is for burn treatment. The main positive for getting the burn treatment approved to me is getting their foot in the door with the FDA so to speak, as the technology is now already reviewed, even if its use in other areas isn't. Of course, I would start to become more concerned if they didn't get on a panel and get the recommendation by at latest the second qtr of the year.
Other thoughts and opinions would be appreciated, as I am only giving my own, and they are worth no more than just that.
Take care,
Marshall |
