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Curly, your prognosis of $65 for CYMI in the not too distant future is insupportable. And the short sellers whom you blame for the stock's decline are, at most, exarcebating an already precarious short-term situation. The facts:
1. Decelerating Q earnings: 0.24 [97Q2], 0.23 [97Q3}, 0.22E [97Q4], 0.20E [98Q1]. It is not until 98Q2 that earnings are projected to increase, and then only to 0.25, which would make it one cent better than the year ago quarter [97Q2].
2. P/E remains high even after the stock's price slump. P/E = 26.6 based on today's closing price of 19 11/16 and trailing 4Q earnings of 0.74. P/E = 20.5 based on next 4Q's earnings estimates of 0.96. One year growth rate = [0.98-0.74]/0.74 = 32.4%. PEG = 26.6/32.4 = 0.82, -- not quite the bargain people look for, ie., PEG < 0.5.
3. Analyst downgrades in the last month: from strong buy [3], buy [1], -- to buy [1], hold [3]. Zacks rates CYMI as a sell (actually Zacks' rating improved from "strong sell" to "sell" in this last week).
4. Street perception is that Cymi has a lot of Asian market exposure, which it does, and that its principal customer, Nikon, is having production problems, which is also true. Regardless of Nikon progress that you indicate, it has pushed out taking delivery of Cymer lasers.
5. Stock has broken through all resistance levels and is in free fall.
I am still long, but much less so after today.
Regards,
Tulvio
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