Does this sound right to you? 20%?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Brief Power Outage Threatens Toshiba Chip Unit
By JURO OSAWA
TOKYO —A 0.07-second power disruption in central Japan has created a major headache for Toshiba Corp.'s chipmaking division, forcing the company to halt some operations at a critical plant and possibly causing a sharp drop in shipments over the next two months.
The electronics maker's troubles started early Wednesday morning when, according to regional power supplier Chubu Electric Power Co., there was a sudden and very brief drop in voltage across three prefectures, which caused the power supply to stop at Toshiba's Yokkaichi memory chip plant in Mie Prefecture.
While Toshiba expects the plant to return to normal operations by sometime Friday, a company spokesman said shipments are likely to be affected because power outages can cause irreparable damage to chips at certain stages of production. For example, if the outage stops even for a moment the air-purifying and conditioning system in a so-called clean room—an area free of microscopic airborne particles that could damage a chip—all the chips inside may be ruined. The company estimates that its shipments of NAND flash memory, which is widely used in consumer electronics, could decline by as much as 20% in January and February as a result of Thursday's outage.
Initial news of the outage came early Thursday afternoon in Tokyo, causing Toshiba's shares to finish down 1.6% at 430 yen ($5.11), a drop of seven yen, while the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average rose 0.5%.
A disruption in shipments would be a stroke of bad luck for Toshiba given that global demand for flash-memory chips remains brisk as electronics makers try to get in on the market for tablet computers and smartphones spearheaded by Apple Inc.'s iPad and iPhone. Toshiba supplies Apple and makes its own tablets and other devices that use the memory chips made at the plant.
U.S. research firm iSuppli was forecasting as of September that global shipments of NAND flash memory chip by volume would jump 70% next year.
Akira Minamikawa, an analyst at iSuppli, said a 20% drop in Toshiba's shipments could amount to about 8% of the overall global shipments of the NAND flash memory ships, given that Toshiba now accounts for nearly 40% of the market.
Still, Mr. Minamikawa added that a decline in Toshiba's shipments wouldn't necessarily cause a global supply shortage, because computer and cellphone handset makers are expected to adjust their output early next year and demand is usually relatively slow in January and February after the year-end holiday shopping season.
Toshiba is the world's second largest maker of NAND flash memory chips by market share after Samsung Electronics Co.
However, should the Toshiba plant's recovery take longer than expected, its shipments could fall even more than 20% and possibly cause a global supply shortage, Mr. Minamikawa said.
"We need to monitor how quickly the plant can recover," he added.
Read more: online.wsj.com |
