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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (74198)	12/10/2010 10:33:57 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 74559

The failure of the Obama administration to have the appropiate economic policy in the interest of the US workers is re-enforced by today’s report of the trade balance with Europe and the close to all time high employment in Germany which reported a substantial trade surpluses of over 46 billion. census.gov All those harping about the strength of the USD v EUR are plain wrong. The facts are clear in today’s trade balance of the US with Europe. Since January this year there is a constant growing trade deficit with Europe, which with today released report indicated that the average USD/EUR rate is grossly overvalued and the EUR should strengthen further to at least 2009 average. (End of year exchange rates for 2007 - 1.4590, 2008 – 1.3980, 2009 – 1.4330) The trade balance to date is (-$66,076) billion compared to (-$48,238) for same period last year. This is a whopping $18 billion or around 37% increase in trade deficits. Anticipated total trade deficit with the EU would be around 80 billion in 2010. This amount reflects the output of about 800K to 1 million goods producing jobs. As goods producing job have an average multiplier of 4 resulting in close to 3 to 4 million jobs lost to Europe. From a technological point of view the US is more or less on the same level as Europe and if this administration would be truly concerned about job creation, then they would invest substantial efforts to counter the in talking DOWN of the EUR and bring the EUR/USD exchange rate more into balance with relative ACTUAL productivity. A lower EUR will benefit the US job market as it will directly affect the demand of EU manufactured imports and increase US manufactured goods exports to the EU. In summary at present exchange rate the USD is overvalued relative to the EUR as reflected in the trade balance reports. An improvement in the US economy will only increase the demand for EU manufactured goods and if the exchange rate will stay the same more jobs will be lost to Europe, undermining US economy. OOOHHHH and those voting "FOR CHANGE" vote themselves out of a good paying job

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