>> seldom does it break the 15 day Bollinger band
on the up side without a few days of carry threw. But
it won't withstand the excessive move to the upside
very long. << (I've yet to figure out how to do italics; could use some help here).
Nice call on the Bollinger Bands and a good reason to suggest higher prices quickly. I'm curious, however, as to why you think the move will dry up at 12 1/2. I'd be more inclined to see it shoot right up into the 13/14 resistance area, then pull back to 12 1/2 for the option expiration. Hard to call after expiration, but one possibility would be a slow slide back to around 10 1/2 to 11 support with another bounce off 13/14 (These seem to be the true resistance areas).
I don't pretend to be expert at TA, but I also see this move today as a breakout, a breakout thru resistance. The true and important technical breakout occurred from the ascending right triangle in late July. The stock has been trending up in a loose channel since and is now closing in the top part of that channel. It has pulled back twice now to that breakout, and signaled another buy about a week after drop to 8. Check the 'W' bullish signal with the RSI on the 6-month daily chart following the recent drop to 8. The day after, the stock started moving from about 9 1/2 and has not yet stopped on great and increasing volume, reminiscent of the move to the lower 20s the last time around.
I didn't like the pullback at the close either, because it basically destroyed what would have been a clear and compelling move up out of a resistance area. I hope it stays above 11 tomorrow (today, the 12th), as this would strengthen the breakout appearance.
There was a 100,000 share block traded 20 to 30 minutes before the close. I could not tell from the charts if it was a buy, sell, or crossing move, and it would be nice to know. I do know that some of you disagree with me on the following, but I again think the market maker pushed the stock down at the close. He or she faced a number of nice, large uptick blocks earlier, and may have had a depleted inventory. Using a few thousand shares on a holiday when the playing field is normally thin to push down the stock makes it easier for the specialist to accumulate inventory at cheaper prices for later resale at much higher prices.
At any rate, when the playing field is full again tomorrow, let's hope the move is up thru 12 and not back down into the resistance morass we just moved out of. With luck, some early buying will induce others to jump in. The early asian market trading has been weak though--not a good sign.
Good luck to all of us,
Sam |
