Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 297.50

-2.6%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (50377)	12/12/2010 2:05:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	5 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 95378

Picking up on the chart from the last post, there were 4 major channels for this past year. The following is a little further analysis of each channel and some comments. The present up channel starting 9/10 is now 13 weeks long and looks like it will continue for at least the near future. Sam's post from Schaeffers Research puts forth that scenario. While the up channel may continue, there will come a time when it turns down again, and it would be nice to be able to "pinpoint" that event, and at the same time to make adjustments to at least avoid losing money gained on this present up channel. If the next down channel can be found early on, money can also be made on the downside. This first table shows percent changes in each of the 4 channels in the chart as well as the overall results year to date with prices sorted by price percent change. Note that in the first 4 columns, the results are all negative or all positive for each stock depending on the channel. There are 2 negative channels and 2 positive channels. I am stating the obvious, but going long in a negative channel or going short in a positive channel is a sure way to commit financial suicide. Finding the right stock to go long or short in the respective channel can be more rewarding than picking other lesser performing stocks, but no matter what stock is picked, money is made if long in an up channel or short in a down channel. That is why it is so important to determine channel direction changes as soon as possible. The following tables show more detail. This set of tables shows the results of sorts for the first 2 channels in the chart. The following tables show the results of sorting for the last 2 channels in the chart. Now we can all dream a little bit about hitting the change in channel direction right on the nose and making big money both on the upside as well as the downside. The following table shows what could be attained by being able to achieve this nirvana. The first table shows the present results, up and down, but the second table shows what happens if the red numbers are turned into positive results. I would like to say in closing that my observation is this thread keeps getting better and better as time goes by. More people are contributing important information about semi stocks and market direction. We need both to become better investors and traders and improve our financial results. Everyone is encouraged to contribute what they can to continue the improvement of this thread. Don

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