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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Burjis S. who wrote (14020)	11/12/1997 3:38:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) of 50167

Japan and HK are down and so is S&P on Globes the momentum we have seen last time to flight to quality is here in opinion of pits in Europe not there bonds trading at 117,28 Matif 98,92 and Bund relatively unchanged- we are seeing a thorough probe of lows in ASEA and I would expect next two sessions are most important- I will expect a positive rebound from Japanese package- the strangulation and inaction on part of Japanese to let their problems linger on so long are just not going to work- the recent spater of resignations of old gaurd is good omen- they need securitsation of their bad debt they can do it but lack the expertise and will- recent US action on corprate front by Bankers have made some visible changes some securitisation deals on pattern of S&L are underway- these structural problems in Japanese economy have and will stay until they address them but we will see that DOW will slowly start ignoring it- one more month of strong economic numbers will indicate that japanese neither have the reason nor the will to pull out of US paper- it is not in theri interest - the revaluation of Yen is the last thing Japanese want on their agenda now- the talks of paper selling is center piece of US markets selling off to these lows however the crisis for me has passed I will rather think that this week if if do not see break of 15000 I will not even recommmend keeping 870 Dec puts- HSI was down but Taiwan and Thai's buck the trend it is not anymore lock stock and barrel flight- US banks for example are exposed to Thai;land to a tune of 5 billion whereas Japan is nearly 36 billion but all this is not going to be written off- it is hard currency loan and will be restructrured to report like media is reporting now that Japan 250 billion domestic loans and 200 bilion ASEAN exposure is the last nail in the coffin in my opinion unlike Mexico this is rationalisation of assets in Asea although painful but timely- US corporates exposed to ASEA will have 2-3% slowdown in capital exports but on the other hand Europe rise from slumber will take care of lot of this slow down- Asean economies are re-exporters of value added goods for them to survivie it is not going to be deflation but more preductivity and competition- we will see a positive impact of devaluations on manufacturing electronic companies- stock markets correction will impact property prices in ASEA but not local demand- I will se this realisation slowly taking ground and although we may have a lot of upheavel on the opening but I doubrt today we will see a first break of 910- if it is so we may see a quick move to 890 in couple of sessions. 850 is in a striking distance but I also think that ferocious buying at 6950 last time will emerge much before that. For me this is not a shape of things for a long ugly down turn-

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