Unfortunately, too much of this thread is directed towards issues which are really spurious, such as the suit against Corel. Getting anything meaningful from a corporation like Corel, even in the event of a win, is very unlikely. Make-work project for American lawyers, nothing more. My take on this company is now quite pessimistic, but not because of the insider selling - that is just a symptom.
1. Institutional ownership - very few funds appear to hold this stock. My evidence is anecdotal at best, but the disappearance of Corel from all of the fund statements I read, combined with the block selling over the past three months, convinces me. Most brokers have long since abandoned it. For this company to reninvent itself, it will need capital, and for a myriad of reasons, just doesn't have the credibility required.
2. Employee stock options - as an Ottawa resident, I know past and present Corel employees, particularly on the engineering side. In this region, Corel has the reputation of being a technology sweat shop. But employee options made the overall compensation attractive enough - as long as the stock went up. However, those packages haven't been worth anything for a while. Even after last January's? redenomination, they are worthless. Many employees have been hanging around, hoping for their mountain of options at C$9 to be worth something again. They won't wait forever, and I would guess many have given up already. The crisis comes when Corel faces an exodus of talent precisely when it is trying to 'turn on a dime' (to use one of Mike's lines) and the talent base is gone - in this respect the Java vs. NC choice doesn't matter.
My reason for following this stock is I still wonder if Corel can turn the situation around and start turning assets into earnings again - and if so, when? Nothing I see right now tells me to put my money down and take my chances.
Ian |
