Tom - Did not catch the article but will look it up.
Have followed Prechter for some time now and have been familiar with
the Elliot Wave system for many years. He has been calling for a significant
bear market for some years and if you followed his timing over the last 5,
you would have missed this last bull push. Eliot Waves seem to be okay in
charting large movements in market trends....but are not so acurate in
predicting short-term swings. He has advised preserving capital and
maintaining cash for quite some time. But his work is valuable as a
background filter to remember that market bubbles are for real and follow path-ways.
.
I personally do not believe that his Armageddon is around the corner. With
that said....in his theories, the fiscal, monetary and political pressures
placed upon the worlds financial systems during this wave will be substantial.
However, that does not mean we will see 2000 on the Dow and revisit the great
depressions of history. I believe the Eliot systems are valuable, but
must be placed within the context of the present historical perspective
at work during the period of the 3rd waves.
.
We will probably whitness some world financial explosion due to these
predicted pressures and may have watched those beginnings since July '97,
actualy from Japans slide in 1990, but the "systems" in place today will
impede the melt-down and impel central banks, governments, monitary funds,
etc. to intervene and prevent a major catastrophe. The computerized and
interwoven financial structures in place today are capable of quelling
any such meltdowns. Remember, our markets are "free"...only to a certain
degree and the central banks are very powerful. By alrights and acording
to old model standards...the real estate and banking crisis of the late 80's,
should have "sunk the boat".
.
Only the armegeddon of a major international war like those in the history
of Europe, Japan and China will cause such devastation and world chaos
as predicted by Prechter and others.
.
Other books you might find interesting:
The K Wave by David Barker
The Great Depression of 1990 by Dr. Ravi Batra
Best Regards
Chip |
