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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 298.01

-0.5%

Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (50567)	1/1/2011 4:26:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95579

This is the weekly update of the Group and SOXM(SOX) tables in terms of earnings estimates and price changes. The week, and year, closed out with a whimper. Looking at the week of 12/3 as the baseline, the Group is up a little over 7 points, and the SOX is down less than a point. Next year earnings estimate for the SOXM peaked the week of 8/20 and continued its downward trend this week by 0.20. The Group on the other hand had a slight bounce this week in the earnings estimate of 0.30. From the bottoms for the Group and SOX, both set the week of 11/23/08, the Group is up 160.8 percent and the SOX is up 128.5 percent. Notice that during the week of 10/29, the earnings estimate for the SOXM Nxt yr value slipped below the Curr Yr estimate. This week that same situation exists. Going back to a year ago, Nxt yr earnings estimates were about double that of Curr Yr estimates. This situation gave a lot of confidence towards rising stock prices as we looked into 2010, but the situation is much different today. Obviously stock prices could still rise in 2011 in response to many factors, but caution should probably be the order of the day.

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