Over 100 years, CO2 has increased from 280 parts per million to nearly 400 parts per million. That was a huge effort and the rate of production continues to increase slightly.
Millions of people have spent their lives getting carbon out of the ground and building distribution systems. Billions of people have spent great parts of their lives working to earn money to buy suvs, motorbikes, ships, trains, planes, buses, cars, trucks, excavators, and any number of fixed motors for a vast array of jobs. The cost has been enormous, but the benefits have been significant. Plants can now breathe easily. They require little water. They can grow fast.
It was hoped that temperatures would also increase somewhat because plants grow better where it's hot and sunny. Tropical jungles are lush. Unfortunately, temperatures have not increased as was expected. In fact, adjusted for the increase after the Little Ice Age as snow cover and glaciers retreated, there has been a temperature DECREASE. The actual overall increase with all variables contributing has been less than 1 degree over 100 years of CO2 production effort.
Unfortunately, in 2037, Peak People will occur so there will be fewer of us around to produce more CO2. Meanwhile, technological developments continue apace with selfish people using less and less carbon to do more and more. It's easier to cerf in cyberspace than go down a coal mine in Greymouth or out on a rig in the Gulf of Mexico to get carbon and easier than working to produce steel, plastics, paint and parts for cars to roar around freeways which also require a lot of effort to build.
As my cyberspace miles have increased, my 3D miles have reduced. Even when I do travel in 3D, it's in cars or airliners which use a fraction of the fuel compared with my early days. I've been tootling around in a Nissan March [a dinky little car] which uses negligible fuel. The Model A I started out in was a hefty monster requiring hefty doses of petrol. Petrol stations were everywhere. So were repairs and maintenance garages. To get to England from New Zealand in 1974 involved a 6 week journey by ship burning huge amounts of fuel. This year I'm booked on an A380 to whizz at 1000 kph 10km high in 22 hours with a couple of stops all the way there in comfort. The cost will be greatly less than ship trip. My share of the fuel will be small.
People in China are never going to roar around freeways in dirty great suvs burning tons of fuel. They already have maglev trains and that's the future of long distance transport.
Trains can fly rather than roll on industrial revolution steel. Cars in cities will be little electric vehicles with people as passengers, not drivers who will merely need to choose the destination. Google has got such autopilot cars on the road. They will be much safer, faster, cheaper and more convenient than existing cars. They'll be able to go really fast, 1 metre apart, with no stupid traffic lights to slow them down. Seagulls with bird brains can navigate in 3D in close formation without collision so on a 2 dimensional surface with only a few choices, left, right or straight ahead, it should be simple to get computers to avoid bumping into each other.
As Sheik Yamani said, the stone age didn't end for lack of stones and the oil age won't end for lack of oil. I used to use a lot of oil, but there are other things I'd rather do. My jobs used to involve selling various oil products [fuels, lubricants, bitumen]. The biggest problem with selling oil is that nobody wants to buy it. Well, almost nobody. A few petrol heads and other aficionados liked to get the dinkum oil, but nearly everyone treated my products as annoying costs of staying in business. Not only did they cost money, they also made a mess if mishandled and then polluted the air when burned.
Nobody drives into a petrol station, somewhat excitedly, asking about the bouquet, vintage, aging, and wanting a few cases just to store in their cellar for 20 years, buying the most expensive petrol they can find, impressing themselves and their friends. It's a distress purchase. "Omigod the bloody fuel tank is empty AGAIN. How much am I going to have to pay those Go--damned oil companies to fill up this time? The government should tell them to cut their prices." They don't swing by the wine shop and start whining that the government should set the prices. They walk into a wine shop with a smile, they drive into a petrol station with a scowl.
When they can find a car that works on water, or air, they'll buy it and never buy another drop of oil if they can avoid it [other than olive oil for their comestibles].
After another 100 years of CO2 production, with the human population in decline, and technology rampant, the mass hysteria about CO2 will look quite medieval, like we look back on the woes about witches and the burning of them at the stake.
They'll review Al Gore's silly movie and shake their heads at the idiocy of it all.
CO2 should get to 450 ppm and possibly even 500 ppm. That's still low in historical terms. Plants will love it.
Mqurice |
