Peak Oil - Not If but When Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Peak Oil - Not If but When

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To: veritas501 who wrote (81)	1/7/2011 6:07:10 PM
From: Drygulch Dan	of 129

I'd call that sort of a twitch instead of a trend. Using your crude oil numbers, there was a drop of 202 between 2007 and 2008. Then it only dropped 17 more units the next year. So if you use the 200 number and project out, you would have an 11 year life left in the production capacity. I think this is too extreme a reduction rate. Whether it is 11 years or 50 years, revenues will continue to ramp for a while due to supply/demand pressures, and more importantly (at least to me) share holder value will accelerate towards its peak which should lag the flow of crude by a number of years. It is during this window that I hope to make the most money during the time I have left. If the trend/twitch turns out to be false for whatever reason then time horizons can be extended...except for my lifetime which may be limited by other forces. There was an old adage about making hay while the sun shines, I think it applies in this case.

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