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Politics : For the Sake of Clarity and Meaning
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From: TimF1/10/2011 2:24:32 AM
   of 777
 
Survivorship Bias As Seen By A 9 Year Old ...

So we're watching TV a few nights ago. A commercial on TV (I think for some kind of financial services firm) starts out by saying that "every success begins with a dream." I was only half paying attention.

My 9 year-old daughter, looks at me and exclaims, "Doesn't every failure also begin with a dream?!" (That's a pic of Pips, short for "pip-squeak," dressed as Velma for Halloween last year)

Survivorship bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that 'survived' some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may literally be people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further. Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than being just lucky."

amateureconblog.blogspot.com
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