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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 325.15+2.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: Big Bucks who wrote (10831)11/12/1997 4:26:00 PM
From: ILCUL8R  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
BB,

I agree with you about waiting for a lower price. It is too bad that I got caught in the "sucker rally" early last week. Positive comments from the AEA meetings and cheerleading here influenced me to buy what I consider a really good company.

However, later, taking into consideration all the learnings from the Idea thread and others, and taking a broader viewpoint than just one stock, it has occurred to me that we are still in for a shake out in a lot of stocks.

Time and again, when I check the chart on a stock, I am impressed with the reality that the "market" is pushing many of them back to where they were last Spring. I guess this is what we call a "correction?"

It seems that the momentum players and overly exuberant cheerleaders must take their lumps for the time being. The world is slowing down, growth rates are decelerating. If PC sales slow from 20% per annum to only 15%, that's a 25% slowdown.

Check out the report of Goldman's conference. Punch in AMAT quote on Yahoo and get the article. It speaks to a new type of market, that the tech market of 1995 and 1996 is no longer viable.

So, what will AMAT look like if it has 25% lower earnings and is pushed down to a P/E of only 15?

I hope I'm too conservative, but I'll be watching for some good analysis of this type of scenario.

Thanks to all you threaders. You have some good stuff here.......
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