Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: tcarnes who wrote (6899)	11/12/1997 4:41:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (2) of 9285

tcarnes/pancho... DDIM is a good short for following reasons. 1. Earnings are inflated via accounting tricks like capitalizing SW development over a 2 yr. period. 2. High valuation is based on their Ardes 2000 product which is a CD-ROM. This CD is a guide on how to plan and manage an in-house Y2K project. It is a really high margin product and if it sells well, then DDIM stock will fly. However, it is not selling as was strongly hinted at during the conference call last week. 3. With out Ardes sales, DDIM becomes a consulting company with lower margins. This will impact stock price negatively. Also, a month or so ago, The whole Ardes 2000 engineering team was let go or quit I do not remember which.!!! Larry Martin, CEO, said that this was not a big deal since the product was finished and only needed maintenance. Strange for something that is the hoped for breadwinner!! 4. Current earnings forecasts are 0.56 from Zacks and ).49 from First Call (I think) For the first 9 months they have earned 0.20. No way they will hit 0.29 or 0.36 in Q4. Larry Martin during the conference call stated that Q4 will be slow due to delays in companies making decisions. Excuse??? Look for downgrades shortly. 5. When they reported earnings last week, they did not produce a balance sheet. Reason... They did not have time since they moved to new facilities. Come on now that is a lame excuse!! 6. Currently they do not have a CFO and have not had one for quite awhile. Prior one resigned and who knows why. My guess is that they are having great trouble finding a new one since the stock is so overvalued a smart CFO does not wish to take a large risk in what might be worthless stock options . I will say this stock has the ability to run up quickly so shorting takes some guts. I shorted at an average price of 22 awhile back and foolishly covered at 33. It then kept going up to 40 and I felt vindicated. But then it started to drop like a rock. I shorted again at 28 and I am quickly getting back all my losses. I wish I was like Roger and continued to short as it went up since I strongly felt the fundamentals were very poor. Final target...Who know but as a consulting company I would look for it to be around 10. I will love your opinions of this company after you have done more DD Good trading and Pancho, I reallly enjoy your posts..

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next