Alternative energy Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Alternative energy

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Sam who wrote (9730)	1/11/2011 1:03:48 PM
From: Sweet Ol	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 16955

OT: Sam, in a previous life I built statistical computer models and I know how unreliable they are. The problem is that they are inferring long-term statistics from too small a sample. The hydrologists have only 20-50 years of accurate flood data to feed into their model and then they try to create 1/500 probabilities. Look at how faulty computer models used to forecast the stock market! Or even reasonably short term weather forecasts. Here the problem is they do not have all the variables in their models. The black swan events always cause you to miss your target. We get over confident when we have a period of successful predictions because things are relatively stable. Again, just look at your own record of stock picking. Some good, some bad, never perfect! Blessings, JRH

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next