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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: DMaA who wrote (403530)1/11/2011 10:07:47 PM
From: TimF2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 794046
 
I'd say there are two ways to look at it.

1 - Its a transfer program, tax and spend, its not an investment program of any type, and with the possible exception of the disability payments its not insurance of any kind.

2 - If you think it is supposed to be a retirement investment. Then it is a ponzi scheme, it relies on new people to pay the old, it doesn't have a real assets or a real rate of return. But its a conservative pozni scheme (not in the political sense of conservative, but in the non-political sense of not extreme or wild, for a ponzi scheme is moderate and cautious) it doesn't pay out wildly inflated amounts to the early joiners (it doesn't have to because of the next point), and its one that can forcibly recruit new people.

So with the right demographics, it can work for a time. But you can't reasonable expect to have those right demographics indefinitely.

Over an indefinite time scale, your likely to eventually have a baby boom. Also even without the baby boom the demographics still don't work for the long run, with population growth slowing down and people living longer. The former had to happen sooner or later, and the later had already been happening before the program was started. From 1900 to 1933 Life expectancy went from 46.3 for men and 48.3 for women to 61.7/65.1

demog.berkeley.edu

And this is what is wrong with these big government programs. These BIG beautiful plans invented by very smart well intentioned people. They are fragile. They are incapable of adapting to change. And the only thing certain in this world is change. Our rulers have not learned this yet.

Well stated. I agree.
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