SPX discussion with Chart:My refusal to yet go hard shorting this market thus far proving correct. i, as of now, preceive an uncommon bullish OVERBOUGHT but still bullish set-up. The machines rule masrket now--all has changed. They are showing their intention to maintain a steady slow BULL, we hit a NEW retrace high in SPX500 to give the relentlessness to keepiong the market going up.
We could acheive the overbought levels of 2000, before it is safe to really go hard short.
i now see 1320 as only POTENTIALLY the top, before a significant correction.
i heard three guests on Bloomberg TV yesterday saying SPX had top out, and contarian indicators show now is a good time to go short.
i rejected that notion unless we had confirmation--=-so today we hit new retrace HIGH.
They are manipulating the RSI with a SLIGHT up down action at overbought line--this enough to just keep nudging market up inch by inch.
If we hit 1320, pullback could back to only 1275.
That ascending triangle, remember an ascending triangle is bearish 75% of the time and NOT 100% of the time.
Situatin, the ascending triangle i have drawn, is year 2000 bulish is bust through 1320.
Technically intermediate term, we need a break BELOW 61.8 fibonacci to get BEAR MODE.
As ALWAYS i must state i believe one must NOT have emotional views about market direction i can only say i am LONGTERM very BEARISH, but for now i REMAIN bullish, as i have so now for nearly 6 months.
Portugal they are saying had a successful bond sale--and that is off the table For Now.
The top may not be until just like 2000, when retailers that had been holding back , capitulated and RUSHED in, to be noted the money invested during the blow-off was 50% NEW MONEY investors---they got assassinated.
When retailers re-enter(they sold-off 80billion in 2010) that could be the Blow-OFF top, and the retailers will be slaughtered AGAIN. Just conjectures nothing more.
Margin debt is rising, but NOT to 2000 levels , NO.
P.S. i play big moves NOT daytrading moves--so keep that in mind, please:)
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