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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (40837)1/13/2011 12:23:05 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 78525
 
My top 10-ish positions in no particular order: NRF-A/B, UVIC, MHR-C, IDCC, EBIX, GFRE, GILD, COPJF, DRAGF. Changes in top-10: PBEGF dropped out due to PMGLF spinoff.

New positions: PMGLF, TPCS, CGPI
Positions increased: NXY, L
Positions reduced: IACAF, GEOI, FR-J, HOG
Positions eliminated:

So far I feel like Buffett: unhappy. The market is going up and this is something that always dampens the mood of a value investor. The number of good deals is shrinking by day and the remaining ones are not as attractive as in 2009 or 2010. It's a risky time: will the market bubble up to ridiculous heights or will we have correction like in 2010? If it's the first, I should hold or buy up, if it's the second - keep cash or sell. So far I am more in the selling camp just because the sales are easier for me than paying up for buys. However, I think that it is more likely that market will go up and I risk underperforming in a broad runup.

I reduced positions in IACAF, GEOI, FR-J, HOG on valuation basis. None of them are ridiculously overvalued, so perhaps I should have held, but I sold. :/

I bought some PMGLF in addition to shares I got from PBEGF spinout. I should have read more about PMGLF last year and should have bought more. Now the price is getting out of buy territory fast.

I managed to add a bit to my NXY position, but it is also leaving the buy land.

I paid up a bit for L and think it's still pretty attractive. Insurance companies are few of the remaining cheapish sectors mostly because their float returns on low-yielding bonds suck.

I bought exploratory positions of TPCS and CGPI. TPCS is a microcap discussed on this thread some time ago. Unfortunately its stock has moved up a lot on tiny volume, so it's risky to pursue. CGPI is yet another Chinese small cap. Chinese small caps is another sector that has hugely underperformed recently due to fraud, improper accounting and management accusations. My feeling is that someone buying a basket of them could make a good return, unfortunately, there is no cheap and easy way to buy a basket. I personally hold too few positions for a good return when this sector returns to favor.
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