Cymer (CYMI) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Doc Savage who wrote (9271)	11/12/1997 5:41:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) of 25960

There are lots of reasons the stock price is acting like a kamikase, but the most recent is the SE Asia situation. Underling the worry about SE asia is the big one-Japan. The japanese economy is a house of cards, most of their banks would be considered bankrupt if they were in the USA. The market is convinced there will be fewer new fabs built. They may be right, but in actuality Cymer lives or dies by the upgrade cycle, not the fab cycle. Semiconductor makers can delay building new plants but they can't delay moving to smaller line sizes for long. If they stick with large architecture too long, they will find themselves the high cost producer in a commodity market. The whole point of moving from .35 to .25 microns is not just that it can make chips faster, but that eventually it makes them a lot cheaper. Unfortunately logic and reason don't play too big a part in the market at times like this, so Cymer stock price will mirror the semiconductor equipment group, even though it's really a special case. Meanwhile, it's a lesson in the value of not averaging down. There is absolutely no way to know in advance about the eventual bottom.

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