The $50 million figure was widely shared (originally) by INCE IR when Terry N was still running the show, and it was confirmed by Jon M (a former poster on this thread) after the INCE/ITCO split. I think as a result of Jon's email confirmation of that (supposed) fact I posted some months ago that it had been confirmed......since then we have dicovered that a $50 million offer was never made by Berg Electronics as previously thought.
I asked Paul about this issue last month when I met with him at Sigma's San Deigo facility. Paul said that the $50 million number was ridiculous, and that the number was less than 5% of that figure, and the offer wasn't never realistic since the suitor wanted more or less to buy the technology (all or nothing) outright for that amount.
I suspect that the companies Paul is working with now are offering a much better deal, and that the arrangement will not end up being an all or nothing buyout of the PIC technology. I suspect that whoever PIC is negotiating with will pay a royalty (% of gross sales) on what they sell using PIC's technology. This may involve some sort of co-manufacturing arrangement, where PIC's partner relies on PIC's engineers for technical expertise, yet PIC doesn't manufacturer anything. FYI- PIC has moved from their last facility to a much smaller location, where developmental work and testing can be done, and meetings can take place with potential alliance partners.
Although I suspect an alliance could be struck by year end, as suggested by others on the thread, I doubt significant royalties would be realized until late 1998 or beyond. The PIC product has to be independently validated by the new alliance partner(s) and the technology has to be incorporated into whatever products PIC's partners are going to manufacturer with the technology. The the product has to be sold, and royalty checks cut.... seems like a lengthy process to me.
One thing that should be a sure thing: INCE's stock should become a better value once one or more contracts come out, especially if the partners are heavy weights in the interconnect industry. It has been a long time coming......
I think it would be very difficult to speculate on how much impact one or more alliances would have on INCE's share price. However, I imagine the profitability of a royalty situation would be very positive to INCE. I think we just have to continue to wait and see how this develops.
Bill |
