NAND flash market set to grow 18% in 2011
eetimes.com
Peter Clarke
1/20/2011 12:50 PM EST
LONDON – The global NAND flash memory market is set to grow 18 percent to reach $22.0 billion in 2011, according to market research company iSuppli, now owned by IHS.
NAND flash is becoming the de facto storage medium for many new and popular consumer electronics devices, including tablet computers, iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) said, and this is helping to spur growth. NAND bit growth is projected to soar 72 percent in 2011 to 19.3 billion Gbytes.
In 2010 NAND flash revenue climbed 38 percent to $18.7 billion.
"Buoyed by the success of Apple Inc.’s iPad, NAND flash will likely enjoy explosive growth in 2011 with the arrival of tablet products from other players such as Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Dell Inc. and Research In Motion Ltd.,” said Michael Yang, senior analyst for memory and storage at IHS.
The biggest segment of NAND demand historically has been commodity flash, exemplified by its use in USB flash drives and bundled microSD memory cards.
The significance of USB flash drives and microSD memory cards as applications for NAND flash memory will diminish in the coming years as demand for NAND memory in embedded applications such as smartphones and tablet computers picks up, the market researcher said.
Despite the strong growth, a shift in market conditions could occur by the end of 2011, Yang warned. Given the optimism now surrounding the market and the likelihood of overspending on manufacturing on the part of suppliers, risks to the industry could surface by the close of 2011 when supply is likely to surge ahead of demand. A slight downturn is predicted for 2012, after which the market will recover by 11 percent in 2013 and then rise again the year after.
For both the embedded and commodity flash memory segments, the key to success will lie in the development of controller technology. Next-generation flash memory will require 60-bit to 80-bit error correction code (ECC) engines, compared to 2-bit ECC just four years ago.
Among manufacturers, aggressive technology shrinks to low 2X-nanometer production may drive supply well ahead of demand, iSuppli said. Supplier may opt for a rapid ramp up while waiting for qualifications from customers which in turn could result in erosion of average selling prices during the first half of the year. |
