Harry,
Hey, you're a thinking man. Didn't realize that was legal at 7am. Appreciate the input.
Guess some of what you described is typical with biotechs during hot markets in particular, as most are overvalued based on current conditions....the usual key word is "promise." With the sector poised to become the next computer/electronics sector as breakthroughs have only just begun, many are trying to get in on the groundfloor(not us, of course!!!) of the biggies. The problem is finding which ones that'll be.....there were companies like Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Dell, etc., but there were far more which no longer exist or never did anything. Current biotechs which are big, like Amgen and Chiron, are leaders, but may not remain there up the road when the boom really gets rolling, although they sure don't look like they'll disappear either...although Chiron could be swallowed up by a company like Novartis(they already own a large chunk...I think a bit under 50% at this time). There are many biotechs in phase 3 with lesser values, but mostly with what it considered to be less potential for their products....potential is garbage if not approved, of course.
Regarding regranex, I think we had discussed the specifics way back around the time of the panel meeting, but as far as I can remember, the panel recommended it even though the improvement rate was far from great. It showed slightly better healing than current treatments and showed no problems or risks, thus leading to the recommendation. This almost was a positive for ATIS as much as CHIR, as it sent the message that the FDA would approve anything for diabetic foot ulcers which demonstrated at least some efficacy as long as it was deemed safe. The dermagraft numbers were far superior, although using it to treat is obviously a lot more work and likely costly than simply applying something topically like a gel. However, I do expect regranex to be available way ahead of dermagraft given the fact that they have already been given the panel recommendation, etc, and I do expect Chiron to do well with it financially. However, I doubt it will do much to cut into the moderate to severe ulcer market, and probably won't interfere with the dermagraft potential, although there may be a lot of augmentation potentially...by using them together....start with cleaning, putting in some regranex, and apply dermagraft.....all this is strictly hypothetical, of course, and is primarily a best-case scenario, as dermagraft has to be available before the hows and when are even an issue.
I agree that there is little likely which will get ATIS back to 16 or over at this point short of dermagraft news for the usa, such as the anticipation of a panel meeting, etc. Other news along the way, such as getting the cartilage study going, etc. sure couldn't hurt though. The other key is that getting approval for dermagraft, on top of dermagrft TC, along with an extensive pipeline, beginning revenues, good management, and leadership position in the industry would only place them in a good position for themselves as a stand alone company or as a very attractive growing little fish for a large deep pockets type of company.
The management issue is also a biggie, as who really knows what good management is in biotech at this time? Sure looks like ATIS is in good shape there, but time will tell. Companies like Chiron are suffering some at this time for this reason, as certain key positions are still wide open(off topic...this would be familiar to any of the RAIN junkies out there). Of course, in this market, most technology companies are suffering, and ATIS fits in with the rest of the group.
You're right on about the need for patience for biotech investors. If you don't do some research and have some patience, you're likely far better off simply buying a biotech mutual fund....like we're all safe and smart here, right??? All of biotech is risky, but if nothing has actually changed for a company, the market directions have nothing to do with the long-term potential, so unless you feel something has changed with ATIS, or for that matter any company, I guess we all need to sit back and watch more football games than CNBC. We may get opportunities for many great deals along the way...for those who have any spare cash.
Uh-oh...I've gotten started rambling again...guess I'd better disconnect myself. Have a good night all. Also, please post more often Harry.....you are too in-tune with things to simply lurk.
Take care,
Marshall |
