Gross,
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I would take a small position in LO @ current valuation levels but it would be with small money, if I did not hate the industry of course. It is always good to start off with small money and see how you feel holding a name then if you do not feel shaky and your confidence grows most of the time you will have a chance to buy cheaper. I love investing when there is uncertainty people are irrational and most of the time it works out. I just looked @ David Temper holdings and listened to him speak and guess what he owns some of DF, GT and MU 3 of the worst performing stocks in the S&P last year. thestreet.com It is no surprise too me that he gets great returns plus he owns a bank in Spain and the hated USA financials. He is also building a position in a lot of tech names that are avoided today by most, but maybe as cheap as they have been ever besides the crash. Recent examples that I made north of 15%-25% in a month or 2 are DF, COCO, CSCO, MSFT, APOL, MBI, BAC, AIG, WFC, DO,HEM.TO, JOE, TRC, WTSLA, KIRK, ALCO, NE etc.. the list is pretty long and I do not remember all of them. The only ones of those names I still hold are DO (reduced by 50% after a 25% return) and NE (reduced 50%-60% again after they got added to the S&P this is my second trip in the last 6 months making a good chunk of change) looking to add more on both when they dip. Back to LO they are the cheapest in there sector because of the risk, no uncertainty they are easily 25% or so higher looking @ there competitors. It is a gamble where I think the odds are in your favor. NE is cheaper looking @ P/E or cash flow and in a much preferred sector for me, but they have a little more risk with there balance sheet and they have some uncertainty with some of there rigs being put to work again so maybe that P/E is a little higher going forward than what is currently stated, but if it was normal times before BP, NE & DO are dirt cheap. There is always a risk with NE that is happening with HAWK right now which is a little scary but I do not think that will happen NE is more diversified. I would much prefer to own a company that has the assets like CNQ but all of the names I follow had great runs and are too close to 52 week highs for me to buy so the deep water drillers are where I want to be. Did buy CNQ recently for a quick 2% gain after they dropped 6% in a day after the fire but that was a quick trade that I was pretty sure I could get some interest on my money. I much prefer to own NE and DO than LO we need these guys we don’t need smokes. I think over time one will make much more money in NE or DO than any tobacco company. Yea you can buy some of the best multinational cos for 13-14 P/Es, which I am currently trying to do in my portfolio. I am trying to be really conservative as the market ran 90% from its lows. I had low expectations going into this year but because so many of my larger holdings popped so early I should have another great year.
My top holdings update and current thinking. I took a little off the table on my top holding VT.TO Friday as it popped again and the current news is all good. Will most likely sell totally out if it runs 30-40% higher and will be a buyer in the 9s or lower again. Been adding to VFF.TO the last few days think it is over due for a 20% pop love this name. MBC.TO has popped recently rising above 3 really like that name too but will not be adding unless it falls below 2.50. Sold out of ST.TO rose too much to quickly looking to get back in under 1.20.
Some companies that are getting pounded lately are WINN, SVU and CALM. Supermarkets have been getting killed especially SVU and WINN they are interesting. I own both, WINN being a much larger position because I like there balance sheet much better and they are a buyout candidate plus LUK owns a few shares not a significant holding but I want to own it because of the potential. Bought SVU on Friday think it is oversold most likely I will not hold this name long looking for quick money. CALM is @ a 52 week low I have that name on my watch list. |
