<Yes, I realize 2012 is out almost 2 years, but maybe this just highlights the lack of patience of customers that Wall Street is assuming. Still, I admit there is significant risk with this one, but it seems like a good one for my bucket of cigar butts.>
One thing to note is that the quarter just reported by SVU was the 3rd quarter of fiscal 2011. So, I'm hoping that sales start to somewhat stabilize in the coming 12-15 months. We'll still go down at least a little over the coming year, but hopefully then we'll bounce. Who knows?
From my standpoint, 2 pieces of the business have stabilized, the Supply Chain business as well as the Save-A-Lot stores (1/2 the overall stores). The other half of the stores are the higher-end stores which are still getting beat up by Target, Walmart, and Costco and will decline again this year.
The question is, as SVU continues to sell off and/or close the higher-end stores in small numbers and then setup new Save-A-Lots, when does the good section of the business start beating the rough part? Hopefully, sooner rather than later, but my guess is that we still go down in sales to some degree over the next 12 months.
Thanks,
Grant |
