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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1577)11/12/1997 10:38:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)  Read Replies (2) of 5676
 
Chip, I think I have to agree with you as far as the overall severity of a bear market. I am just beginning to become familiar with the elliot wave theory but why don't you believe the Dow can go below 2000? According to Prechter, after such a mania has occurred, it is necessary for the market to give back all that it has gained in the mania. Japan appears to still be in the process of doing that.

And in Precters book I was looking at the trendlines he constructed for the entire history of the stock markets since 1700's. according to those trendlines we have already broke through the upper trendline and if we were ever hit the bottom trend line, that value in the Dow would be approx. 500 or so. It is hard for me to conceptualize that the Dow can reach that number again. But I suppose it was also hard in the late very early 80's to conceptualize 8000 in the Dow. I mean that would be unheard of then. If someone were to prophesize that we would hit 8000 in the Dow in all that pessimism of the early 80's, surely they would have never believed it.

I guess a lot really depends on how valid the Elliot wave theory really is. Because if it is so that these patters unfailingly repeat themselves over years, decades, and centuries then it seems at least plausible those predicted things can happen.

Anyone notice the full moon tonight? (every time I see that full moon, something big happens in the market the next day!) And did anyone catch what Arch Crawford said on Monday?

Regards,

Tom
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