Arrhenius, Svante, 1896. On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. Philosophical Magazine ser. 5, vol. 41, 237–276.
rsc.org
Not even a nice try. Buncha gobbledeegook from the insane. (It's PC to call out the insane after Tucson).It ain't an on/off light switch. The atmosphere is still absorbing heat, the oceans are still absorbing heat, and we will continue to accumulate heat for many years until equilibrium has been reached, even if we stopped all emissions right now.(The last IPCC report calculates that if we held greenhouse gas concentrations steady at 2000 levels, average global temperature would go up another degree Fahrenheit.)
He came pretty close, considering he didn't have a calculator or slide rule to speed his work...
Arrhenius and Global Warming. Although concem about global atmospheric ... After an estimated 10000 to 100000 calculations by hand. (7), Arrhenius predicted ...
sciencemag.org
currently,
Paleoclimate data suggests CO2 "may have at least twice the effect on global temperatures than currently projected by computer models"
climateprogress.org
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized climate sensitivity as “likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.”
Individual studies have put climate sensitivity from a doubling of CO2 at anywhere between 0.5°C and 10°C; however, as a consequence of increasingly better data, it appears that the extreme higher and lower values are very unlikely. In fact, as climate science has developed and advanced over time , estimates have converged around 3°C. A summary of recent climate sensitivity studies can be found here.
A study led by Stefan Rahmstorf concluded “many vastly improved models have been developed by a number of climate research centers around the world. Current state-of-the-art climate models span a range of 2.6–4.1°C, most clustering around 3°C” (Rahmstorf 2008). Several studies have put the lower bound of climate sensitivity at about 1.5°C,on the other hand, several others have found that a sensitivity higher than 4.5°C can’t be ruled out.
A 2008 study led by James Hansen found that climate sensitivity to “fast feedback processes” is 3°C, but when accounting for longer-term feedbacks (such as ice sheet
disintegration, vegetation migration, and greenhouse gas release from soils, tundra or ocean), if atmospheric CO2 remains at the doubled level, the sensitivity increases to 6°C based on paleoclimatic (historical climate) data.
climateprogress.org |
