From LRCX CC slide presentation, slide 8:
– NAND
• Surge in demand for tablets & growth in smart-phones support bit growth of ~85-95%
A few notes based on listening to the CC, the transcript isn't up yet.
3-3.5% GDP growth
cautionary statements, but Lam will do well
tablets--50-55m unit sales, with another 15-20% potential growth
NAND bit growth--85-95%
NAND vendors will increase new wafer starts capacity by 200,000wpm and increase tech upgrades of another 400,000wpm
NAND investment still well below past peak;
2007 spending--6.1b, 4.3b in 08, 1.8 in 09;
NAND vendors will spend about $8b in 2010 and 2011, they think (I think they think, anyway!).
NAND demand will grow about a billion units, spending necessary to meet demand (didn't get a time frame on this).
12-13 fabs that will take shipments this year; 16 fabs being constructed in all; 6-7 fabs will take first deliveries in 2011; no further breakdown of that (like, when will they be operational, how many wafers will they be adding, what will they be outputting) |
