What can I say? People believe what they want to believe.
Since Exxon is one of the largest companies in the world, I looked over their Energy Outlook, and here's a quote from page 42 (page 44 in the pdf reader):
By 2030, global liquids demand will be the equivalent of slightly more than 100 million barrels per day (MBDOE), a rise of more than 20 percent from 2005 demand of 84 MBDOE. This increase will be met nearly equally by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Non OPEC sources.... However, Non OPEC production of crude and condensate is expected to be essentially flat through 2030, as growth in certain areas – deepwater and oil sands – offsets declines in more conventional oil fields. Therefore, growth in demand for liquid fuels through 2030 will need to be met by expanded production in OPEC countries, as well as biofuels and other petroleum sources such as natural gas liquids (NGLs), coal- and gas-to-liquids, and gains achieved via improved refinery processing. ExxonMobil expects that global production of liquid fuels, excluding OPEC crude, will grow to about 67 MBDOE in 2030, as shown in the lower shaded areas of the chart. The difference between these supplies and projected global demand is termed the “call on OPEC crude.” ExxonMobil projects the call on OPEC, currently around 29 MBDOE, to grow to about 36 MBDOE by 2030. We expect that this production level will be achievable, given OPEC’s resource base and incentives for development.
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I'm sure it's news to OPEC that it will expand production when today it's unable to being down the price of oil from close to $100/bbl (using the Brent price which is more representative than the NYMEX price).
Also, to the uninformed eye, Exxon's projection looks rosy. But Exxon itself admits Non-OPEC crude oil will be flat to 2030 so any gains will come from unconventional sources, which are uniformly more expensive than conventional oil.
Why is Exxon so quick to admit Non-OPEC will be flat while asserting OPEC will grow production? Maybe because OPEC is opaque about production while Non-OPEC is completely transparent. |
