Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.34

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (10907)	11/12/1997 11:56:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Buck...The turnaround will come when the overcapacity is soaked up, especially in the commodity chip area....New fabs and expansions needs to be cut back, chip growth needs to spike up...At this point if folks keep expanding fabs...this thing could go on for a long time....so it all depends how drasticaly the fabs scale back their ambitious 1998 plans. I have a feeling that 1998 cap spending will be lower than 1997. I have a feeling that Bagley's conf call may not bailout the semi's....analysts will wait for a clear sign before they decide to jump in again. 1999 is looking good as the start of a new upcycle in semi cap spending....just my opinion. dave

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