to be transparent about the context of my commentary, i am at:
20.5% physical metals
incl. 10.7% au, 9.8% pt, and decimal of pd
15.2% paper metals and shorted put/call options on same
incl. 14% au
sometimes my shorted puts/calls fully engage my cash capacity (iow, sometimes my shorted put positions can potentially double my paper metals positions, to 30% of total pf, matching my physical hoard)
9.8% mining n energy n private equities
16% cash (appr 45/45 cad and hkd, and rest in chf and odds n ends)
38.6% rental real estate, mostly hong kong
the way i look at above allocation is that it is about
- 100% tied to china economy (everything incl the metals)
- 35% tied to counter-china economy (the metals, they should do well if china booms and also do well should china kabooms)
- 60% tied to counter-usa economy (metals + mining / energy equities + cad/hkd cash)
besides above, i have facility to instaneously leverage up to 1x sum of above. i very occasionally use the leverage to move in n out of paper gold, silver and platinum. iow i occasionally go 3x in the metals as i have physical.
i use the leverage-enabled trading profit from paper metals trading to buy physical metals.
i currently have no position using such leverage. i have so far only ever tapped leverage to be 15% of total pf. i expect to used up to 100% at some juncture this year.
the way i look at the game is to treat physical as anchor to climbing cliff, and to treat the leveraged paper trades in the metals as climbing cliff.
the game is of course dangerous if i unnecessarily panic, and also dangerous if we are near inflection points of the metal super cycle. i feel we are not there near metal end-game yet.
cheers, tj |
