Thanks for the long history of CO2 from Fourier onwards. I'm a paid up fan club member of Fourier as having learned about Fourier transforms back in the day and recently applying them to an idea I had for squeezing more data into spectrum, it funded my retirement so that I can look closely at other issues in life such as the alleged Global Warming "science".
Life is intricate and what seemed interesting knowledge but unlikely to have much effect on my life turned out to be vitally important. What seems likely to happen isn't necessarily what happens when all the twists and turns of life are done.
The simplistic ideas of a couple of hundred years ago formed a good basis for thinking about climate. They were necessary but not sufficient. Gradually they were adapted and improved so that "The Science" more closely approximated what actually goes on. A simple tube of gas was not sufficient to represent atmospheric effects, as they said.
Similarly, the simplistic computer models they now use are inadequate to describe the planetary processes involved with climate.
The proof of a theory is in the results in reality. Since the Little Ice Age ended with rising temperatures, the increase has been less than 1 degree Celsius. In a static system, the increase in CO2 to 390 ppm could provide that much heating as predicted by the near enough calculations over the centuries.
A close examination of Gaia would show that it is not a static system. There is subduction of oceanic crust and kilometres of radiolarium and other carbonaceous sediment. There is sinking of the freezing Gulf Stream taking umpty megatons of CO2 down the gurgler with it to the ocean depths for 1000 years. There are clouds which form when the dew point is reached and transport water to the poles where it is dumped in kilometre thick stacks of ice. Heat is transferred with that water vapour towards the poles and when it reaches its dew point, the latent heat is given up, radiated out to space. At Mount Maunganui a couple of weeks ago, the waves were green with seaweed. That green is chlorophyll which eats CO2. There is petatons of the stuff swirling about in the oceans, ending up as fish food and sunk to the bottom of the ocean one way or another.
Gaia is more complex than a tube of gas which shows that particular photon wavelengths transmitted are absorbed by CO2.
H2O is also a greenhouse gas. There is a lot of the stuff. Unlike CO2, it doesn't remain in gas phase in air [other than the CO2 which absorbs into water drops]. H20 turns to water. Clouds reflect light. LOTS of light. So does snow, on land or sea.
Plants absorb light. Deserts don't. As plant cover reduces more light is reflected. It's an oscillating process.
Contrary to popular mythology, believed by seemingly everyone, Gaia does NOT ensure a homeostatic process keeping the climate equable so that Al Gore and his Second Chakra can stay in balance. The climate is on a one way trip to extinction of life. Gaia is a suicidal maniac, not a life-giving Mother Earth. When dandelion seed blows in the wind, it's luck where it lands. Nature rolls the dice and where life gets a grip, it's in luck, for a while. There are no natural guarantees. Gaia does not love us or any other living things, contrary to the superstitious mythology.
We have been in luck.
The point of having big brains and science is that it enables us to keep it that way for a while until we figure out what to do next.
Observation of the facts shows that Earth is not warming as fast as expected by the simplistic CO2 theories which make the old "assume a spherical cow" mistake. Cows are not spherical though for some purposes, such an assumption will be near enough for government work.
Since reglaciation is coming, a bit of CO2 is likely a good thing. Another lucky break. As predicted by Mq the Amazing in 1998, the last three winters have been beauts and the solar minimum was a biggie too. The peak will be low. 2020 will see seriously cold climate get going, back to 1812 levels. France should avoid invading Russia in 2020 - there is some 2020 foresight for you. Germany should refrain too though they could profitably take over the middle east and north Africa.
Without luck, which Gaia does not guarantee, despite the false ideas about homeostasis of the climate, we could go right into reglaciation. Brrr....
If you think warming is bad, you should try cooling. Go and sit in a freezer for a few weeks [without food - other than a couple of polar bears roaming around].
Mqurice |
