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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.34+1.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: davesd who wrote (10912)11/13/1997 12:21:00 AM
From: Big Bucks  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Dave,
>>The turnaround will come when the overcapacity is soaked up<<

This is apparent. The industry needs to be "behind schedule"
or in a demand driven environment. As of now the chip industry
can produce products with such good efficiency that the surplus
is outgrowing demand, hence price competition and excess capacity.

The past catalysts for increased chip demand have been new
innovative consumer products such as cell phones, computers,
pagers,vcr's,televisions,digital watches, and various electronics
wizardry that created the demand for more chips. The next
"must have" technology IMHO is increased communication bandwidth
for the internet infrastructure such as cable modems, wireless
modems and the transmitter/receiver/switching support services
along with ethernet interfaces for consumer home appliances.
There is no new "killer" software to help drive the need for
better computer hardware yet, and I don't see that occuring for
3-5 more years. Most of todays recent personal PC's should
be adequate for general consumer use for another 2-3 years
with some minor upgrades to increase performance.

Any other ideas about new products acting as a technology
catalyst for consumers, short term, say 1-2 years?

BB
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