TA review
Brushing up on my TA skills from my futures trading days:
Quantum is now retouching old resistance just above 25.
There is also a 3 point uptrendline on the log graph that
goes back to its breakout in late 1996 and is now just under
25. The stock just broke its 200 day MA to the downside,
which contradicts the above , but is still not totally
bearish as volume is contracting and brief punctures of
MA's in longterm uptrends are normal as the market is not
100% precise.
Seeing this, I had placed a GTC buy at 25 1/2 a while ago which got
hit today. I also had a GTC buy at 27 5/8 (fewer shares). So now I am one of you proud Quantum owners. The next support if it breaks 25 convincingly is 17 1/4. If it hits that level, I'll overweight my portfolio in this stock. Of course, eyeing Seagate at the 22 1/2 level.
On Quantum, MACD is very negative on the weekly chart, but
ADX is actually turning down, indicating a weakening
trend. Hence, we turn to stochastics and RSI which indicate
the stock needs to base or double bottom at 25 before resuming an upmove.
Boy that was fun. Now I'll go back to value investing,
my forte. On a value basis, I'm socking the shares away
for a year or so. The PSR and PRR, along with the smart
management moves by locking up MR supply lines seem to
indicate this is a Ken Fisher Super Stock undergoing
a glitch of no fault of its own.
This may get bloody, but hey I've got 20 years til I retire.
Hey Dwight - there you are again.
Good Investing,
Mike
sealpoint.com |
