Hey Tuck,
Yeah I do believe you have the takeaway right. In terms of commercialization, I think the key point is that this all just pertains to the much smaller TNF-failure patient population. The real key is the DMARD-failure patient population, which is much bigger and where FosD showed clear success in the TASKi1 and TASKi2 trials. Keep in mind that two of the three Phase 3 trials being conducted by AZN are in this patient population. If the third Phase 3 efficacy trial in the TNF-failure patient population shows success, in contrast to TASKi3, due to RIGL/AZN being able to design it better based on their additional knowledge, then I'd view that as icing on the cake. But, I certainly don't think it needs to be successful for FosD to be approved and to be a successful drug.
I think RIGL is already at a very interesting price level. ; ) And that's why I'm strongly considering going long again. I'm waiting on RIGL to announce 4Q10 results and hoping they do a CC in conjunction as I'd like to be able to get one last update before going long. But, if not, I'll probably jump in anyways. RIGL is being effectively priced as it being an all but certainty that FosD is either going to flop in the Phase 3 trials or otherwise be rejected by the FDA. I just don't agree with that assessment as I think the odds of success, while no guarantee of course, should be much greater.
Did you happen to catch my exchange with jq1234 over on iHub regarding RIGL? It starts at: siliconinvestor.com . jq's a knowledgeable poster over there but we just don't agree about the risk-reward of RIGL here. I think the big sticking point for him and the overall market really is the blood pressure spike at the start of FosD treatment for some patients. I think most are worried that this will translate into some issue in cardiovascular outcomes in FosD treated patients. But, RIGL has clearly been monitoring this and has noted no issue to date. Although this could change at some point in longer-duration treatment I suppose, I don't see it being likely that a blood pressure spike that is promptly controlled shortly after treatment, and as evidenced by there being hardly any difference in BP in both arms at the six month point, somehow translating into FosD causing more heart attacks, MIs, etc. I realize there's a risk of this, but I think the market is pricing RIGL unduly harsh. Oh, and what about the rest of RIGL's pipeline? Market cap seems a bit of a joke to me, especially when we factor in cash on hand and the fact that AZN is funding all FosD trials. |
