Why the Egyptian Uprising is Extremely Bad News
Stephen Markley on 02.01.11 at 6:54 AM
The dictator of Tunisia has fallen and it appears possible that Hosni Mubarak's 30-year reign may also soon come to an end, and for all those cheerleaders from both the Bush and Obama administrations claiming credit--not to mention social media nitwits who think Twitter is fomenting democratic revolution--please shut up. As usual, the media's grasp of what is happening is either willfully ignorant of the facts or downright naïve.
The story is, of course, who's scoring political points. "Obama's 'Shah Problem': President Obama is doing what Jimmy Carter did with Iran in 1978," read one headline of a missing-the-point op-ed.
Make no mistake, the movements to oust Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and Mubarak are extremely bad--even terrifying--news.
Now obviously I'm a big old lefty and believe that like Winston Churchill said, democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others. People should of course have the right to elect their leaders and live under governments of their choosing. This should of course be a global goal and a major foreign policy objective of the United States.
But what we are seeing in the Middle East and northern Africa is not a thirst for democracy but a revolt spurred by high food prices. After all, Tunisians and Egyptians have been living under authoritarian rule for ages more or less without a peep. They were as stable as countries in that region tend to get and functioned relatively well (by which I mean, compared to like Yemen). Now, however, food prices in both countries have spiked.
On the one hand, it's very possible that this could lead to historic political reforms. Both countries could become functioning democracies overnight for all I know. However, a democratically elected government will no more be able to control the price of food than a dictator could. The underlying instability will remain, and this instability is extremely dangerous.
According to the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), which tracks world food prices, the FAO Food Price Index leapt 32% in the second half of 2010. This beats the previous record of 2008 when food riots broke out across the world and Haiti and Somolia burned.
There are three main reasons food prices have spiked. First, the world's population is getting bigger. Second, the price of oil has again risen into the economic danger zone. I've written about peak oil before, and however you may feel about that theory, it has become evident that the symptoms of an approach to peak oil have begun to crop up--if not the catastrophe itself. Finally, the most important reason in spiking food prices: extreme weather events. Climate change "skeptics" and deniers may want to take note of this next part.
This summer saw wildfires in Russia that destroyed hundreds of thousands of acres of grain. Floods in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Australia devastated those countries' crops. Dry, hot weather incinerated Argentina's soybean crop--one of its most important exports. Even in Canada, heavy rains took a brutal toll on the country's wheat.
Can all of these extreme weather events be chalked up to climate change? Of course not. As I've said many times, attributing any given weather event to climate change is irresponsible and impossible to prove scientifically.
But again, as I've said many times, these types of destructive weather events are exactly what climate scientists have been predicting for decades. If you have any familiarity with the literature on climate change (and no, "Cool It," Fox News and homemade documentaries do not count) then you also know that climate scientists have been shrieking about the possibilities of global food shortages for years.
The problem being that hungry people tend to do things that do not seem rational to not-hungry people, but appear highly fucking rational to them.
Look, I know the only pieces I write that get forwarded around and put up on Facebook walls are the ones about how I don't like dogs or how hipsters should move to Wrigleyville, and that's fine. Earning D-list celebrity with inane ramblings is a fun way to (try to) make a living.
But do me a favor, and share this one with a few people who may not otherwise read it. Because what's happening in Egypt right now is only a preview of things to come, and people need to understand the world that's just around the corner.
chicagonow.com
A native Ohioan, Markley now calls Chicago home. He works as writer for RedEye and KickingTires. His first book, "Publish This Book," will be out in spring 2010. |
