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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Mr.Gogo who wrote (41335)2/5/2011 9:41:33 AM
From: Area51  Read Replies (1) of 78652
 
Here is my take on the situation (lifted from gunnar @ investorhub because he summarized it better than I could). I can understand your disgust with the situation. Even if the MW/citron reports were deisgned to help shorts cover I doubt it was illegal (MW for example compares old published information against recent company information and wow of course it doesn't match up). I think they can just claim sloppy research (who knew?). But its a reason I don't like to way overweight an issue even if fundamentally it is undervalued (any one stock can always have problems or be manipulated)

This is a great, a short who is supporting CCME in strong terms. He calls out Muddy Citron more effectively than we longs can in a some ways - very cool.

"I find very little difference in the quality of work Citron Research did with CCME and the average penny stock promotion email I get countless times daily. The biggest differences I assume are Citron Research is short CCME and that CCME is traded on NASDAQ."

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"Looking at the work by Muddy Water Research and I find in my opinion the same level of research performed. "

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"Top institutional holders include Goldman Sachs, Ardsley Advisory Partners, Morgan Stanley and Vanguard Group. The amount that institutions are holding is growing as well. It’s possible that CR and MWR are the smartest guys in the room compared to the institutional CCME stock holders but given the choice I am going to place my bet on Goldman Sachs over Citron every time."

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"Saving the best for last we see the mother of all numbers. CCME short interest is a whopping short squeeze nightmare for anyone who is short of 6.44 million shares. With a float of about 10 million shares this means that more than one out of every two shares out there is shorted. Fourth quarter 2010 earnings report is expected to come out next week. If the numbers beat expectations it could kill the shorts as they scramble to get out of the burning inferno that would be cooking them alive. How do you get out of a large short position right before earnings without taking a huge loss? One idea is to issue a “research report” on why you believe the stock is a total fraud. Prices fall and you get out just in the nick of time. There are no coincidences on Wall Street."

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There is much more, he does a point-by-point rebuttal and goes over insider buys as further evidence of a phony 'fraud' story... a great read and an important voice on the short side.

seekingalpha.com



Best Regards, A51
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