Why HP might ditch WebOS for Android
February 08, 2011
infoworld.com
WebOS lets HP stand out but also makes it the odd man out, while an Android strategy could better play to HP's strengths
On Feb. 9, Hewlett-Packard will unveil its grand plan for WebOS, 10 months after it bought Palm and its mobile OS. HP's hints since the Palm acqusition suggest there'll be one or more new WebOS smartphones to replace the Palm Pre, one or more tablets based on WebOS, and Internet appliances such as printers running WebOS so that they can do some processing without being tied to a computer.
It's a risky strategy, as it forces HP to swim against the Apple iOS (iPhone and iPad) and Google Android tides pounding both the consumer and business markets. Microsoft, Nokia, and Research in Motion have all been swept away by the surge (though they're still trying to swim), and it's not clear how HP will fare any better. Perhaps HP has something magically different up its sleeve that will turn heads in an unprecedented, lasting way. But HP is hardly known for carrying off such feats in the rest of its computer business, so it's hard to imagine why WebOS would buck that history.
What HP is good at is making decent systems using the same hardware and operating system as everyone else -- in other words, Windows PCs. HP brings little significant innovation to the mix, though it occasionally innovates around the edges, as in the attempts to popularize touchscreen PCs it began a couple years ago and still tries to pursue. As a result, HP makes a solid product at a decent price, and it's used that strategy to become the No. 1 PC maker in the world, as competitors suffered quality, branding, and distribution issues.
When you look at the Android market, it's very similar to the Windows PC market: The smartphone and tablet makers are using the same hardware underneath (that's why their specs all sound alike), as well as the same OS, with minor UI variations. Sure, Samsung stands out with its brilliant AMOLED displays, HTC has its Sense UI overlay, and Motorola Mobility spotlights its keyboard and "world phone" models -- but their differences are ultimately small ones. By and large, Android smartphones are as interchangeable as PCs.
Because HP excels in the PC market, it stands to reason that it would do so in the Android market. Plus, HP might have an advantage in the tablet segment of the Android market. Tablets are more like PCs than phones, and HP's PC reputation should carry over to tablets, especially for business users, moreso than the cell phone reputations of HTC, Motorola Mobility, and Samsung would.
Dell is also trying to play the Android game with smartphones and tablets, but so far the devices have received little attention -- perhaps because Dell has long suffered a reputation for poor quality, which may have been permanently cemented through recent revelations it intentionally resold defective equipment to customers (Dell denies these claims). Although Dell theoretically could execute the same "treat Androids as Windows PCs" strategy, it may not have the ability or reputation any longer to pull that off. Its Android-based Streak tablets, for example, have been poorly received, including the latest 7-imch version released this month.
HP has both the ability and the reputation. Sure, a "let's do for Android what we do for Windows" strategy may not be as sexy as a "let's try to be a unique platform à la Apple and Google" plan, but it would better play to HP's proven strengths.
The Windows head versus the WebOS heart
Such a strategy, however, may not play to HP's aspirations. The Palm team surely would not such a "treat Android like Windows" strategy -- Palm's intent when ex-Apple exec Jon Rubinstein took over several years ago was to be an Apple, not an HP or Dell. (The Palm folks don't even use PCs -- they're a Mac shop.) HP likely saw in Palm a chance to be more of an Apple: an innovative leader, not merely a good packager of other companies' technology. Retreating from that aspiration could be difficult to execute emotionally.
But Palm didn't deliver an Apple-style product with WebOS or the Pre, and that's why it ended up becoming part of HP. Maybe under HP's wing Palm can get a second chance, and HP can become more than a good packager of others' technology. But it's not clear what has changed -- or what HP brings to the table other than buying Palm more time -- that would let Palm succeed in a second try. We'll get an idea on Feb. 9, of course.
Regardless, I suspect there's a debate within HP beween the head and the heart, with the head being "let's do with Android what we've done successfully with Windows" and the heart being "let's leverage to become an Apple or Google." If the heart doesn't succeed soon, I suspect the head will prevail. After all, Palm was cheap enough where HP could afford to drop the heart strategy in favor of the head without material impact on the company's finances or investors.
If the head prevails, that would lead HP to join the Android market, perhaps keeping WebOS as an embedded OS that invisibly powers Internet-connected printers and the like. More important, such a shift could remake the Android market, while giving HP a new area of growth to replace the inevitable decline in sales as the post-PC shift takes hold. |
