Mike, where do you see the H&S?
I think it's risky to call a H&S at the head.
Really, this chart pattern can only be relied-upon in retrospect. The first point at which I would call a H&S top would be on the drop from the right shoulder.
Yes, I see a head in Oct-Nov, with a long left shoulder Jun or Jul through Oct. However, a special situation created the left shoulder, and so I don't know how much credence I give it.
You might see a mini-H&S in October, but that's way too short to be a real H&S.
So, I'd say we'd have to be in the 40's somewhere before you could really cal a H&S.
Because they take so long to complete, and can't be called till they are almost or fully complete, I think that H&S formations are useful primarly for calling major market turns - when we see H&S tops in the market averages, and in many individual stocks, we will be in a bear market. (And of course will already be well into it!) |
