Akidron,
Wishful thinking while wearing rose colored glasses
won't change the dynamics of the situation. Yes, some
expansion will occur this year in various countries
and in some chip industries, but it won't be a record
year IMHO. There is just to much capacity in certain
critical/key segments such as DRAM and CPU's and Eproms
and FLash memory at the moment, thus the "glut" of cheap
chips which is whittling away at profits/margins. New
technology is just around the corner (2 years), now is
the time for companies to build strength and consolidate
their resources to fund "future growth expansion".
It takes money/capital and demand to fund growth. If
interest rates are increasing (from past downturns)
then typically expansion SLOWS DOWN since the cost of
purchasing and building new fabs becomes more expensive
to fund. If demand drops off due to economic concerns
and consumers are not purchasing current products then
excess capacity needs to be trimmed back and a slowdown
ensues until demand picks back up in more favorable
economic conditions.
Economics and growth are mutually self-perpetuating,
they go hand-in-hand, one does not exist without the
other. Growth requires good economic conditions, while
good economic conditions fertilize growth.
All industries/economies operate in cycles of various
duration. The economic cycle has been booming world-wide
for quite a few years now, especially in the Pacific rim/
Asian countries. They are now showing signs of weakness
and must recharge before more growth can continue. As for
Europe, they just raised interest rates in some countries
which tends to restrict growth.
My feeling is, that before growth can resume in the chip
industry, that things need to stabilize and consolidate
for a while until the economic situation improves.
AMAT usually lags the chip producers by 3-6 months since
it has backlogged orders to support it during an initial
downturn/softness in fab expansion. Time will tell.
Just my opinion,
BB
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