Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc.

MNTA 52.48

0.0%

Oct 2 5:00 PM EST

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From: semi_infinite	2/12/2011 9:16:58 PM
	of 3027

What I find interesting is the collapse in implied volatility since the Teva announcement of the minor deficiency letter. If I look at the 2012 and 2013 leaps, not much downside is priced into the puts especially if Teva clearance is expected later in the year beyond normal market volatility. Some say now there is a 95% cumulative probability in Teva getting clearance but the options premiums says "so what?" -- ie either downside is priced in or the probability is significantly lower than 95%. I don't see any change in odds before or after the letter. It's still 50/50 and if they don't get it done in six months, the odds head down towards zero quickly. I hope the fat option premiums come back.

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